Luton Preview and Cowley Calculations.




Well, quite a lot has changed since we last reported in a rather pessimistic mood pre-Birmingham, as it stands Town are two points above the drop zone and are on a three-game unbeaten run. 


The win over the Blues at St Andrew's was a welcome tonic and could've easily been more than 0-3, but with everyone around us winning in that game week it did little more than help us tread water, just above the line. The two draws against Preston and Reading have done far more to lift us up the ladder. Arguably in both games town could've and should've done a little better and collected a few more points but for a bit more cutting edge. 


Clean sheets and decent performances are crucial at this time of the season and maybe non more so than this evening's tea time kick-off against Luton. Standing bottom of the table where they have been for most of the season, it could be hoped that we could grab a bundle of goals this evening against the worst team in the league. However Luton have already beaten the terriers this season 2-1 away at the glamorous Kenilworth Road, as always it may not be that simple. It will come down to who wants it most. Luton are still capable of survival, with potential points deductions hanging over Wigan, Wednesday, and others it's far from over with four games to go.


A win this evening would see Town hit the 50 point mark with three games to go and give a little breathing room, should other results fall in our favor. With the aforementioned points penalties to come it's starting to look better and brighter for our safety in the championship. 


Which brings us to this week's second talking point. Cowley Calculations. Like most of you, we've spent a lot of time the last few weeks looking at the tables, results and doing various calculations and computations as to how it might all work out. Now it's looking a little brighter and we're looking up not down again we asked a "what if". 


What if the Cowley brothers had been at the helm for the whole season?


Under Seiwert and Hudson town played 6 league games and garnered 1 solitary point. What if Danny and Nicky had been at the helm for those games? Well, Jan and Mark had a win ratio of 0% the Cowley's 32.4% applied over those 6 games we should have won a further two and had 6 more points. Applying this a little further (and without doing the complicated calculations of readjusting any other team's points) we would be happily mid-table and on the beach by now. All achieved with a sunken team full of wantaways and wage thieves, patched up with loanees and old boys. 


Should we ensure survival this bodes well for next season when the brothers will have had a sort out brought in a few more of their own players and had a full preseason to build the team, their way. With a 50%+ win rate at their previous teams, next season looks far more exciting and less fear-inducing than this...


So from our abject pessimism of a few days ago it looks like we might be ok, all we need is three points against Luton this evening. 


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